Reviewing Day 8 of the FIFA World Cup

France and Croatia go through and Peru are eliminated. Argentina are on the brink of a group stage exit.


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Probability of qualifying and winning the group, by area, going into the last matchday for Group C. By Lukas Faust.

Part of our 2018 FIFA World Cup Hub

The second round of the group stage continued, with 3 games from Groups C and D.

The real winner of today in this group is Denmark, whose draw with Australia has really boosted their chances, being just enough to eliminate Peru. France has gone through.

Group C updated probability of progressing:

  • FRA – Q
  • DEN (4 pts, +1, 2 goals) – Δ 84.8%
  • AUS (1 pts, -1, 2 goals) – ∇ 15.3%

Argentina’s loss has sent Croatia through and has made Iceland the favourites to take the 2nd spot in the group.

Group D updated probability of progressing:

  • CRO – Q
  • ISL (1 pts, 0, 1 goal) – Δ 44.0%
  • ARG (1 pts, -3, 1 goal) – ∇ 40.5%
  • NGA (0 pts, -2, 0 goals) – Δ 15.6%

DEN v AUS

This was a game where Denmark was trying to secure qualification and Australia was trying to avoid elimination. Australia’s last three goals have been from the penalty spot, a streak that stretches back to the previous World Cup. Denmark’s point eliminate Peru a few hours later. Australia would still go through if they beat Peru and France beats Denmark, regardless of scores.

Yussuf Poulsen and Pione Sisto were carded. Yussuf Poulsen will be suspended for the game against France. He scored Denmark’s goal against Peru.

  • DEN 1-0 AUS (7′ Eriksen)
  • DEN 1-1 AUS (38′ Jedinak penalty)

FRA v PER

Peru had to wait 36 years since their last World Cup appearance, and today saw their run cut short after just two games. France has gone through and only needs a draw in their final match against Denmark in order to secure the top spot.

Blaise Matuidi, Paul Pogba, Paolo Guerrero, and Pedro Aquino were carded, but none of them will be suspended.

  • FRA 1-0 PER (34′ Mbappe)

ARG v CRO

Argentina followed up on their lacklustre performance against Iceland with a complete second-half meltdown against a physical Croatia. Uzbek referee Ravshan Irmatov, who is my favourite to officiate the final. He holds the all-time record for the most World Cup matches refereed (10). The score should be a huge concern to Argentina fans, because their qualification could now very much depend on goal difference.

Gabriel Mercado, Nicolas Otamendi, Marcos Acuna, Ante Rebic, Mario Mandzukic, Sime Vrsaljko, and Marcelo Brozovic were carded. Brozovic will be suspended for Croatia’s match against Iceland.

  • ARG 0-1 CRO (53′ Rebic)
  • ARG 0-2 CRO (80′ Modric)
  • ARG 0-3 CRO (90’+1 Rakitic)

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Mika Ryu

Law student at Western University, and UofT graduate in economics and linguistics. Remember that your version of the world is always too simple.

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