Reviewing Day 7 of the FIFA World Cup

Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Morocco are eliminated, while Russia and Uruguay go through.

Probability of qualifying and winning the group, by area, going into the last matchday for Groups A & B. By Lukas Faust.
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Part of our 2018 FIFA World Cup Hub

The second round of the group stage continued, with 3 games from Groups A and B. With only 3 games, it has been the lowest scoring matchday at this World Cup so far.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia have been eliminated. Russia only needs a draw from Uruguay to win the group.

Group A probability of winning:

  • RUS (6 pts, +7, 8 goals) – 59.5%
  • URU (6 pts, +2, 2 goals) – 40.5%

Morocco has been eliminated. Spain and Portugal remain strong favourites to progress, both teams only needing a point from their final match to progress. Iran will progress if and only if they beat Portugal.

Group A updated probability of progressing:

  • ESP (1 pts, 0, 3 goals) – Δ 98.2%
  • POR (1 pts, 0, 3 goals) – Δ 88.6%
  • IRN (3 pts, +1, 1 goal) – ∇ 13.2%


Ronaldo did a good job to get to the end of a header to score the only goal of this match. The most impact that Morocco can have on this tournament at this point is beating Spain, which might eliminate Portugal if Iran win their final match, all of which is highly unlikely.

Adrien Silva was carded, but will not be suspended.

  • POR 1-0 MAR (4′ Ronaldo)


Uruguay ended the campaigns of Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia’s defence looked disorganized at best, and oblivious at worst. Uruguay are still struggling to find their tempo, which they will need to do in order to beat Russia and win this group. A completely clueless back line and an overambitious goalkeeper mistake allowed Suarez to score the only goal of the match on a completely open net.

No cards were given.

  • URU 1-0 KSA (23′ Suarez)


Despite enjoying around 70% possession, Spain failed to dominate this match. At moments, Iran actually managed to look like the better side. Spain failed to get a shot on target until the last moments of the first half. Diego Costa was somewhat lucky to score, in what initially looked like an own goal. Iran thought they had scored an equalizer but the VAR judged it to be offside, having bounced off a player who was in an offside position when the ball was headed down by an Iranian player.

Vahid Amiri and Omid Ebrahimi were carded, but neither will be suspended.

  • IRN 0-1 ESP (54′ Costa)


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Mika Ryu

Law student at Western University, and UofT graduate in economics and linguistics. Remember that your version of the world is always too simple.

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