Reviewing Day 10 of the FIFA World Cup

Germany escaped a Swedish scare while Belgium continues to show good form

Probability of qualifying and winning the group, by area, going into the last matchday for Group F. By Lukas Faust.

Part of our 2018 FIFA World Cup Hub

The second round of the group stage continued, with 3 games from Groups F and G.

Korea is all but eliminated, and Mexico’s win has hurt Germany’s chances a bit but have not knocked them off the favourites’ spot. Mexico are favourites to win the group.

Group F updated probability of progressing:

  • GER (3 pts, 0, 2 goals) – ∇ 88.2%
  • MEX (6 pts, +2, 3 goals) – Δ 79.0%
  • SWE (3 pts, 0, 2 goals) – Δ 31.9%
  • KOR (0 pts, -2, 1 goal) – ∇ 1.0%

Belgium will go through as long as Panama do not beat England tomorrow. They will almost certainly go through regardless. Panama must beat England to keep Tunisia at least nominally in the tournament, while an England win would send both Belgium and England through.

Group G updated probability of progressing:

  • BEL (6 pts, +6, 8 goals) – Δ 99.9%
  • ENG (3 pts, +1, 2 goals) – Δ 92.9%
  • TUN (0 pts, -4, 3 goals) – ∇ 6.8%
  • PAN (0 pts, -3, 0 goals) – ∇ 0.3%


The highest scoring game of the World Cup saw Belgium look even more comfortable, with Lukaku now at the top of the goalscorers’ table alongside Cristiano Ronaldo.

Ferjani Sassi was carded, but will not be suspended.

  • BEL 1-0 TUN (6′ Hazard penalty)
  • BEL 2-0 TUN (16′ Lukaku)
  • BEL 2-1 TUN (18′ Bronn)
  • BEL 3-1 TUN (45’+3 Lukaku)
  • BEL 4-1 TUN (51′ Hazard)
  • BEL 5-1 TUN (90′ Batshuayi)
  • BEL 5-2 TUN (90’+3 Khazri)


Korea looked very much outclassed by a Mexico team that is increasingly looking like it could make a historically deep run at this World Cup. They continue to ride high on their momentum having opened with a victory against the defending champions, so the team and fans will not be intimidated by any team.

Kim Young-gwon, Lee Yong, Lee Seung-woo, and Jung Woo-young were carded, but none will be suspended.

  • MEX 1-0 KOR (26′ Vela penalty)
  • MEX 2-0 KOR (66′ Hernandez)
  • MEX 2-1 KOR (90’+3 Son)


Germany faced another scare when Sweden scored in the first half. The Swedes gave the Germans a few more scares and took their lead into the second half. Jerome Boateng had a horrendous game, and Rudiger was not too much better.

The Germans equalized at the start of the half, before scoring the winner in the dying seconds of stoppage time with a brilliant free kick trick. For both Germany and Sweden, winning their next game might not even be enough to progress.

Albin Ekdal and Sebastian Larsson were carded. Jerome Boateng was sent off after a 2nd yellow and will be suspended for the next match.

  • GER 0-1 SWE (32′ Toivonen)
  • GER 1-1 SWE (48′ Reus)
  • GER 2-1 SWE (90’+5 Kroos)


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Mika Ryu

Law student at Western University, and UofT graduate in economics and linguistics. Remember that your version of the world is always too simple.

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