Previewing Day 15 of the FIFA World Cup

Groups G & H conclude, with Japan, Senegal, and Colombia fighting for the last 2 spots in the next round.

Probability of qualifying and winning the group, by area, going into the last matchday for Groups G & H. By Lukas Faust.

Part of our 2018 FIFA World Cup Hub

The world’s biggest sporting event continues as Groups H and G wrap up. Tomorrow’s four games start at 10am and 2pm, Eastern Time.

In the next round, Group G winners will face Group H runners-up, and Group H winners will face Group G runners-up.

Reaching the Round of 16 would see Japan match their best ever result (Korea-Japan 2002, South Africa 2010).

Favourites: England vs Colombia (July 2); Japan vs Belgium (July 3)

Group H

Japan (+1, 4 goals) will go through as long as they do not lose to Poland. If they lose to Poland, then Japan will only advance if Senegal beats Colombia.

They will win the group if they do at least as well as Senegal does against Colombia, except if Colombia wins, in which case Japan will also have to win in order to win the group.

Odds: 35.9% to win, 86.1% to advance.

Colombia will go through if they win, or if they tie and Poland beats Japan.

They will win the group if they beat Senegal and Japan does not beat Poland.

Odds: 33.7% to win, 57.3% to advance.

Senegal (+1, 4 goals) will go through with at least a draw. If Senegal loses to Colombia, they might still advance on goal difference over Japan.

They can win the group if they do at least as well as Japan does against Poland.

Odds: 30.4% to win, 56.6% to advance.

Poland has been eliminated.

Favourites: Japan 1st, Colombia 2nd.

Group G

England are already through to the next round. They are poised to win their group for the first time since 2006, and must beat Belgium in order to do so. If they tie with Belgium, it will be decided on yellow cards (of which England currently has one fewer than Belgium).

Odds: 57.5% to win, 100% to advance.

Belgium are also through to the next round. They can also win the group if they beat England, and can win the group on yellow cards with a draw. A draw with no yellow cards would see Belgium finish 2nd.

Odds: 42.5% to win, 100% to advance.

Tunisia and Panama have already been eliminated.

Favourites: England 1st, Belgium 2nd.


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Mika Ryu

Law student at Western University, and UofT graduate in economics and linguistics. Remember that your version of the world is always too simple.

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