Previewing Day 14 of the FIFA World Cup

Groups E & F conclude, with Brazil, Switzerland, and Serbia competing for two spots, and nobody safely through yet in Group F.


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Probability of qualifying and winning the group, by area, going into the last matchday for Groups E & F. By Lukas Faust.
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Part of our 2018 FIFA World Cup Hub

The world’s biggest sporting event continues as Groups F and E wrap up. Tomorrow’s four games start at 10am and 2pm, Eastern Time.

In the next round, Group E winners will face Group F runners-up, and Group F winners will face Group E runners-up.

Favourites: Brazil vs Germany (July 2); Mexico vs Switzerland (July 3)

Group F

Mexico (+2, 3 goals) will go through if they do not lose to Sweden. Even if they lose, they will go through as long as Germany do not beat Korea. If Mexico loses and Germany wins, then Mexico will be tied with Germany and Sweden on points and can still go through on goal difference.

They will win the group as long as they do not lose to Sweden. If they lose, they can still win the group over Sweden on goal difference. If Germany and Sweden both win, then Mexico will have to beat both on goal difference to win the group.

Odds: 70.0% to win, 78.7% to advance.

Germany (0, 2 goals) will go through with a win against Korea. If they tie with Korea, then they will go through as long as Mexico wins over Sweden. If both games end in a draw, Germany can advance over Sweden on goal difference. If Germany loses, they will have to lose by 1 goal or less AND get not more than 1 more yellow card than Korea, AND hope that Mexico beats Sweden, to advance over Sweden on goal difference.

They can win the group on goal difference over Mexico and Sweden, if they beat Korea AND Sweden beats Mexico.

Odds: 17.8% to win, 87.0% to advance.

Sweden (0, 2 goals) will go through if they beat Mexico and Germany does not beat Korea. If Germany does win and Sweden beats Mexico, Sweden can still go through on goal difference over Mexico and Germany. A draw for Sweden means they have to hope that Korea wins, or that Korea and Germany tie so that Sweden can advance over Germany on goal difference. If Sweden loses, they can still go through on goal difference over Germany and Korea as long as Korea beats Germany by exactly 1 goal.

Sweden can win the group on goal difference if they beat Mexico. They will have to beat Germany on goal difference as well if Germany beats Korea, especially if it is by multiple goals.

Odds: 12.2% to win, 32.8% to advance.

Korea (-2, 1 goal) can go through on goal difference if they beat Germany and Mexico beats Sweden. They cannot win the group. If Korea and Mexico both win by 1-0, then the 2nd spot in the group will be decided by yellow cards, and Korea currently has the most yellow cards.

Odds: 0% to win, 1.5% to advance.

Favourites: Mexico 1st, Germany 2nd.

Group E

Brazil (+2, 3 goals) will advance with at least a draw against Serbia. Even if Brazil loses, they can go through on goal difference over Switzerland as long as Switzerland loses to Costa Rica.

They will win the group if both matches end in a draw, or if they beat Serbia and Switzerland fails to beat Costa Rica. If both Brazil and Switzerland win their games, the group winner will be decided by goal difference.

Odds: 67.6% to win, 90.8% to advance.

Switzerland (+1, 3 goals) will advance with at least a draw against Costa Rica. Even if they lose, they can go through on goals scored or yellow cards over Serbia if the other match ends in a draw. If Switzerland loses and Brazil loses by more goals, they can also go through over Brazil on goal difference.

They will win the group if they beat Costa Rica and Brazil fails to beat Serbia. Even if Switzerland and Brazil both win their games, Switzerland can win the group on goal difference over Brazil if Switzerland win by more.

Odds: 26.5% to win, 95.2% to advance.

Serbia (0, 2 goals) will advance with a win over Brazil. They can also advance with a draw, on goal difference over Switzerland, as long as Costa Rica beats Switzerland.

They will win the group if they beat Brazil, as long as Switzerland do not beat Costa Rica.

Odds: 5.8% to win, 1.4% to advance.

Costa Rica has already been eliminated.

Favourites: Brazil 1st, Switzerland 2nd.


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Mika Ryu

Law student at Western University, and UofT graduate in economics and linguistics. Remember that your version of the world is always too simple.

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