According to a new poll published by Ipsos on Global, the Liberals are now losing support even among their target demographics, namely the middle-class, women and millennials, with many progressives increasingly weighing up a vote for the NDP, and the Conservative’s reaping a majority of the rewards.
The poll surveyed roughly 1,003 Canadians and found that 56 per cent said the Liberals have fallen short of expectations, with 60 per cent saying it’s time for them to make way for another federal party.
Perhaps most interesting though was the fall from grace from women, a key area which the Liberals have continuously attempted to “champion” by putting forward a gender-balanced cabinet, and by restricting the voice of his MP’s on issues such as abortion.
The poll found that thirty-five per cent of women say they’d vote for the Conservatives, with the Liberals snagging 30 per cent and the NDP not far behind at 26 per cent.
Side Note: A Nanos’ weekly tracking poll suggests that Mr. Trudeau has also lost about a third of the men that supported the Liberals three weeks after the 2015 election.
As far as age groups go, the Conservatives are expectedly comfortably (47 per cent) the preferred party of people aged 55 and over, with the Liberals lagging well behind at 30 per cent and the NDP at 16 per cent. The Tories also have a nine percentage point lead over Gen Xers, or people aged 35-54.
Millennials are the only demographic group that favour the Liberals, but with 33 per cent approval to the NDP’s 31 per cent, but even there the trend is interesting, as Liberal voters are beginning to leave their party for the NDP.
So how did this happen?
Ipsos believes it was the India trip which finally accumulated in the break by most voters.
I agree with them the India trip was exceptionally important, but ultimately because it helped voters understand that the Liberals can no longer be trusted to represent their best interest over their intentions to win re-election.
They are in effect no longer authentic or consistent, and voters do not view them in their best interests.
Progressive young voters likely believe that Trudeau will peddle to the right, or poorly represent their views and older people wonder what new tax, regulation, or tariff they will have to work against while trying to understand what their own government is doing.
This anger is also extremely interesting when discussed along provincial lines as it shows a potentially new winning coalition for the 2019 election.
If polls stay consistent the Conservatives could strengthen their stranglehold on the west, take key ridings in Ontario, while a rising NDP pulls away key support from Quebec and British Columbia.
All of this good news for the opposition leaders comes at a time where many Canadians still don’t know who Andrew Scheer or Jagmeet Singh are.
For many Canadians, the only time politics becomes a real topic of interest is when they head to the ballot box. It only stands to reason than that as we get closer to the projected fall 2019 election date, more and more Canadians will come to know Scheer and Singh potentially creating a far more dangerous scenario for Justin Trudeau.
As of now, often without knowing the other options, Canadians are more and more shifting away from Trudeau and his governing Liberals. However, when presented with two clear alternatives on the Right and on the Left, Justin Trudeau could find himself hung out to dry as dissatisfied voters from all over the traditional political spectrum gravitate towards the more authentic progressive or conservative options of Singh or Scheer.
Either way, the once uber-popular Liberals have certainly experienced a fall from grace from the heady approval numbers of early 2016