While the SNC-Lavalin controversy continues, a recent poll conducted by the Angus Reid Institute has found that if an election were to be held tomorrow, the Trudeau Liberals would trail behind the Scheer Conservatives at the polls by a whopping 7 percentage points (38% to 31%).
All of the commotion surrounding Trudeau in recent weeks has not done much good to how the PM is perceived by the public. Although it does remain unknown if any pressure was in fact applied by the PMO to not prosecute SNC-Lavalin for fraud and corruption charges, a stunning 66% of Canadians say they believe there’s a deeper scandal in the PMO.
“63% also believe that SNC-Lavalin should be fully prosecuted under the criminal code, rather than allowed to negotiate a remediation agreement as the PMO reportedly would have preferred.”
As a Prime Minister whose “teflon” has worn off completely in recent months, Trudeau finds himself unpopular among Canadians, according to this most recent study.
60% of Canadians say they have an “unfavorable view” of the PM, with 59% saying that their opinion of him has worsened over the last month or so.
As expected, a lot of these negative views are coming from voters who are right of center. But even within his own party, 28% of those who say they’d vote for the Liberal Party in an election held tomorrow also state that their view of the PM has worsened.
It appears as though overall, Canadian politics are in a state in which most voters are not overly enthusiastic about the candidates running for federal leadership in October.
Trudeau isn’t an exception, but instead appears to abide by the current rule; Canadians are to dislike their party leaders.
Trudeau is viewed unfavorably by the majority of Canadians polled, but Mr. Scheer of the Progressive Conservatives is also seen unfavorably by a majority of Canadians, at 54%. Jagmeet Singh also tallies up a sizable 64% unfavorability.
Depending on what side of the isle you stand, it appears to reflect directly on what your opinion of the ongoing SNC-Lavalin scandal is.
Those who would vote for the Scheer Conservatives in an election held tomorrow overwhelmingly polled that there is a deeper scandal to uncover at 95%, while most Liberal supporters feel as though the situation with Laval has been overblown (72%).
Recently, Trudeau appears to have done the most damage to his image. The number of Canadians whose opinion of him has worsened in recent weeks comes in at 60%, while Scheer and Singh each poll under 30% (25% and 29%, respectively)
Scheer has taken the limelight to bring questions about Trudeau’s SNC-Lavalin scandal to the forefront, and doing his best to make Trudeau look bad.
Scheer has not been shy in his criticisms of Trudeau, though this has apparently not really made him more popular amongst those polled. 20% of Canadians say their opinion of Scheer has improved in the past month, compared to 25% who say their opinion of him has worsened.
It will be interesting to see how the remainder of the SNC-Lavalin saga will play out as it continues on into 2019
Where everything stands
Those who still stand with Trudeau will most likely stick with him in the long haul, as he appears to have a solid base of supporters whose vote will not flounder or go astray.
Scheer, at this point, is probably praying that Maxime Bernier torpedoes his own campaign somehow. It is still unknown just how much impact Bernier’s PPC will toll the CPC in October.
Last night in Burnaby South, Laura Lynn Tyler Thompson who ran against Jagmeet Singh for the Vancouver-area seat, polled out at just over 10%. A number that may have surprised many, and surely has the Conservative Party a bit worried.
Scheer needs to remain collected, look composed, needs to tap into the concerns of his target voter demographic, appear genuine and sincere, and not have any blunders of his own.
If Scheer can do all of those things while also finding his own unique voice that doesn’t ring too meek, Mr. Scheer appears to have a very real opportunity to cause some major headaches to the Liberals this coming October, granted that Maxime Bernier doesn't Ross Perot the entire thing.
Jagmeet Singh walked away victorious last night in the byelection. This was a critical victory for Singh, who many even within the NDP were losing confidence in.
He does not have the likability of a Jack Layton, and he does not have the type of sensibility that Tom Mulcair presented, so what does he really have to appeal to voters?
For one, he is an option for Canadians that is neither Conservative nor Liberal. He will probably fair well within colleges, as students may be questioning their allegiance to Trudeau at this point, and will be looking for a left of centre alternative.
And then there is Mad Max Bernier, the potential wrench in the system.
It’s very hard to tell what amount of support Bernier will get in the coming election. Surely he was happy with last nights results in B.C., as his candidate for Burnaby South presumably took away a fair chunk of Conservative candidate Jay Shin’s votes, who collected 22.5% of the final vote.
It will be interesting to see how the coming months play out. What do you think? Let us know.
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