According to pollster Nick Nanos, a political party’s approach to climate change is more likely to change the votes of female voters, and voters in Quebec—a recipe that could spell trouble for the Andrew Scheer-led Conservatives.
According to new Nanos Research survey by CTV News, six out of 10 Canadians surveyed say that climate change will influence how they will vote in the coming federal election.
In an interview with CTV’s Power Play, Nanos says that the party most likely to lose support in the ballot box could be the Conservatives, “depending on how they manage this.” Nanos also points out that the Liberals will have more of a “mixed bag” because of their pipeline investments, all while trying to be conscious of their environmental presence.
The newest survey found that when asked how to rate how climate change will influence their vote in the October election on a one to 10 scale, with one being no influence at all and 10 meaning it will very much influence their vote, women were most likely to say that their vote could be swayed.
The survey found female voters surveyed gave climate change a mean score of 7.8 out of a potential 10 in their vote influence scale.
Another segment of people who also gave a mean score of 7.8 was from those surveyed in la Belle Province, Quebec.
On the flip side, the survey found that Prairie voters are least likely to have their vote influenced by climate change. Those surveyed from the prairie provinces, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, gave climate change a mean score of 6.1 out of a potential 10 on their influence scale. Male voters surveyed gave it a mean score of 6.7 out of 10.
Older Canadians were also less concerned than those aged 18 to 34.
Liberals and Conservatives are both attempting to make climate change a key issue in their campaigns for October, but they approach the issue from different angles. The Liberals are focused on tackling climate change as a “real and serious problem,” with a carbon tax being a potential fix to the issue.
Conservatives, on the other hand, have attacked the carbon tax on various occasions, and plan to scrap it. The band of Conservative premiers plan on challenging the tax in court, and in Ontario, mandating anti-carbon tax stickers on gas pumps.
Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer has promised to unveil his alternative plan to tackle climate change, stating that it will be revealed in the coming weeks.
The NDP and the Greens are far our in environmental left field, stating that even the Liberal plan doesn’t go far enough to battle climate change.
Overall, here is how all regions ranked the importance and sway power climate change will have on their vote:
Atlantic voters: 7.5 out of 10
Quebec voters: 7.8 out of 10
Ontario voters: 7.4 out of 10
Prairie voters: 6.1 out of 10
British Columbia voters: 7.5 out of 10
“Whenever there is wild fluctuations in the weather the environment as an issue skyrockets… and what we’re seeing right now is that there’s an increasing proportion of Canadians that put the environment as one of the key issues in the next election,” Nanos said. “If there is any kind of significant weather event… it’ll validate for those people that believe that this should be a top priority.”
Methodology: Nanos Research conducted the hybrid telephone and online random survey of 1,000 Canadians, 18 years old and older, between May 31 and June 4 as part of an omnibus survey. The margin of error for a random survey of 1,000 Canadians is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.