Maxime Bernier’s newly announced party polling at 13% nationwide

Liberals lead with 34% followed by the Conservatives with 28%, NDP with 16% and Bernier's party with 13% support nationwide.

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In a survey conducted late last week by Abacus Data, Maxime Bernier’s newly announced party has the support of 13% of projected voters. This puts the yet-to-be-formed party ahead of both the Green Party and Bloc Quebecois in the days immediately following the Quebec MP’s announcement of his intention to form a new party following his withdrawal from the Conservative caucus.

The survey of 1000 potential voters included a preference poll of the five largest parties, not including Bernier’s new party. Given the choice of the five parties currently represented in Parliament, the sample showed the Liberals leading by 3 points nationwide at 37%, followed by the Conservatives at 34%, the NDP at 18%, 6% for the Green Party and 3% for the Bloc Quebecois.

After being presented with excerpts from Bernier’s critique of the Conservative Party from his public statement of resignation on Thursday, 13 % of the sample group favoured Bernier’s party in waiting. With Bernier’s party in the mix, the Liberals still lead with 34%, followed by the Conservatives at 28%. Bernier’s party pulls support from all three of the largest parties: 3 percentage points from the Liberals, 6 from the Conservatives and 2 from the NDP.

Bernier’s party bests the Conservatives in Quebec

Perhaps the most significant insight from this survey conducted immediately following Bernier’s announcement is the amount of support he draws away from the Conservative Party in his home province of Quebec. Among voters surveyed, Bernier pulls 15% support in Quebec, putting his prospective party in second place behind the Liberals who lead by a large margin with 41%. With Bernier’s party in the mix, the Conservatives trail behind, tied for fourth place with the NDP behind the Bloc Quebecois at just 11%.

This puts a point on the significant role played by Bernier in drumming up support for the Conservative Party in Quebec during the 2015 federal election, which saw the Tories increase their seat count in the province to 12, up from just 5 in 2011.

Outside of Quebec, Bernier’s announced party does best in Western Canada, pulling 18% support in Alberta and 17% in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Early momentum for Bernier

Bernier hopes to carry the momentum of this data as he begins the process of building his new party. In a Facebook post on Sunday he wrote, “This poll is fantastic news. Only hours after I announced my intention to launch a new party, 13% of Canadians would vote for it.” 

It is still early days, and at this point the results of this poll can only be interpreted speculatively but they suggest that potential voters have not dismissed Bernier’s planned party out of hand. Even before the party has been registered with Elections Canada or released any platform planks, a combined total of 49% of survey respondents say they are either certain to (6%), likely to (10%) or would consider (33%) voting forBernier and his new party in 2019.



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  1. BAM, 13% of the vote, just like that, one announcement, not even a party or party name. Justin Scheer had better pull himself and his clan out of that bottomless pit stupor of insecurity called political correctness if they are to compete against an unbound Bernier. Conservattives stood idly by for the past three years while the Liberals increased immigration to unprecedented levels and allowed tens of thousands of illegals to break our laws, why? Because they’ve convinced themselves that opposing the issues head on would taint their chances when the opposite is true. When the mainstream media was done with their relentless crusade against Kellie Leitch, two polls revealed 75% of Canadians supported proposals. I’m sorry, but two Liberal parties in this country just doesn’t cut it. I was going to spoil my ballot, but now Bernier is hope.

  2. I will wait and see on Berniers party platform but I have always liked him better than Scheer, so he has a great chance of getting my vote. I have been unhappy with all of the Federal parties for years.

Dean Tea

Dean Tea is a curiosity-driven writer and editor based in Gatineau, Quebec. He has stood as a candidate both provincially and federally and currently sits on the board of the Libertarian Party of Canada. A bilingual student of linguistics, he will receive his Bachelor of Arts from Carleton University in December 2018.

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