Kinder Morgan Canada share target cut as growth hopes fall post pipeline deal

Analysts at CIBC have cut their target share price for Kinder Morgan Canada Ltd., the former owner of Trans Mountain.


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CALGARY — Analysts at CIBC have cut their target share price for Kinder Morgan Canada Ltd. and say its future is cloudy in the wake of its deal to sell its biggest current and growth asset — the Trans Mountain pipeline system — to the federal government.

They say in a research report the company will be left cash-rich but prospect-poor after it agreed to sell its existing 300,000-barrel-per-day pipeline and the delayed 590,000-bpd expansion project for $4.5 billion.

Kinder Morgan Canada stock fell again Thursday, continuing the post-deal trend that saw it close nearly three per cent lower at $16.10 on Wednesday. It dipped as low as $15.89 in late Thursday morning trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

CIBC slashed its 12-month price target to $17 from $22 because of its lower expectations of future growth in revenue and dividends for Kinder Morgan shareholders.

It says the company has a great deal of capital available, given Ottawa’s cash deal and the plan of its 70 per cent owner, Houston-based Kinder Morgan, Inc., to spend more than $15 billion in overall growth capital over the next five years.

But the note adds that it’s unlikely that an acquisition would allow it to offset the benefit from the $7.4-billion expansion of its Trans Mountain pipeline.

“While accretive options may be surfaced, we do not see a potential transaction as sufficient to offset the potential upside from the Trans Mountain expansion project,” the note says.

“Indeed, we question Kinder Morgan Inc.’s willingness to retain Kinder Morgan Canada longer term as it only contributes about two per cent of EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) and has reduced growth prospects.”

Kinder Morgan Inc. created its Canadian subsidiary in a $1.7-billion initial public offering last year. But the deal means investors will no longer be able to share in the financial upside of the expansion project.

Kinder Morgan Canada estimates the pipeline deal is worth about $12 per restricted voting share, after capital gains tax — about three-quarters of its total share price.

The company will continue to hold an integrated network of crude tank storage and rail terminals in Alberta. It will also own a terminal in Vancouver and the Cochin Pipeline system which transports light condensate from the United States to Fort Saskatchewan, just northeast of Edmonton.

CIBC notes the retained assets were expected to contribute about half of the company’s 2018 EBITDA of about $400 million, excluding construction funds.

It expects after-tax proceeds for the approximately 30 per cent of Kinder Morgan Canada not owned by its Houston-based parent company to be about $1.25 billion. It didn’t specify how it would spend the proceeds of the sale but did say it plans to continue to invest in Canada.

 

Companies in this article: (TSX:KML)

 

The Canadian Press



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