According to the most recent data from the CBC Poll Tracker, if an election was held today the Conservatives would receive 34.8 % of the vote in comparison to the Liberals at 34.5 %.
A close election by any normal standards, but let’s be honest, this now close political race was not foreseen. It’s far closer than any political pundit would have predicted a year ago, given the extreme lead the Prime Minister had over the Conservatives.
It seems that the combination of embarrassing events such as his notorious comments on veterans (and the lack of funds distributed to them), his trip to India, the slumping economy, and now the massive and rapidly developing scandal around him grabbing a reporters ‘behind’ 18 years ago have taken a serious toll on the Trudeau brand.
Given this massive impact, it’s definitely worth asking, just how serious is this and can it be fixed?
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Or is Trudeau leading his party straight into electoral catastrophe in 2019?
This depends on two factors… First, how long the current scandals stay in the mind of voters, and second, if the Prime Minister decides to pivot before the coming election.
On the first matter, I certainly believe that some of the scandals and mistakes will have lasting effects, such as the comment towards veterans who are apparently asking for more than we can give. The recent groping allegations and the failure to change electoral laws may also damage the image of our Prime Minister permanately.
These points slice deep and cut into some of the most important voting blocs that helped support Trudeau’s victory in the 2015 election. Heck, to this day the petition against the Prime Minister’s choice to break his promise on electoral reform stands as the most signed on the e-petition site.
These deep cuts will not fully destroy Trudeau in 2019, but they will open a serious path for Jagmeet Singh to make serious gains against Trudeau’s most left-wing voters.
At the same time, the Prime Minister’s decisions (and dangerous tweets) on areas such as illegal border crossers are sure to provide a credible path for Andrew Scheer to pull away loose centre-right voters.
Already with these few choices, the Prime Minister is in serious trouble when considering that in 2015 he received 39% of the vote in comparison to the Conservatives 31. Meaning that a change of just 4% to the Conservatives could result in the Party receiving 35% to the Liberals 34%.
So could Prime Minister Trudeau make a comeback?
That depends on his willingness and capacity to pivot towards new policies while diverting media attention from his gaffes, but even here, there are more serious problems.
Firstly, the Prime Minister truly believes that his economic and border policies benefit the entire nation, making a pivot far less likely.
On the topic of embarrassing social gaffes, the Prime Minister is potentially too far in. The recent allegations around his groping of a reporter, is something that will continue to hurt him every-day of his career moving forward.
As a result, the Prime Minister is almost trapped, slowly losing voters both on his left and on his right as he continues to push for policies that voters on both sides of the aisle find either too cold or too hot.
What do you think? Let us know by commenting below!
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