With the United Conservative Party (UCP) leadership race now in full swing many expected a tight battle between former party leaders Brian Jean and Jason Kenny, but with one candidate appears to be pulling ahead of the pack it may be over sooner than expected.

A new Think HQ/Metro News poll found that if the leader was chosen today, former Wildrose leader Brian Jean would likely claim victory and might even have enough overall support to win a provincial election.

Jean had 51 per cent of the support from 1,136 participants, compared to fellow candidate Jason Kenney who trailed behind with 32 per cent of the vote.


Provincially, the poll found both Jean and Kenney would likely capture a majority if an election were held today. Of the two, 53 per cent would support Jean’s UCP, with 49 per cent supporting a Kenney-led UCP. The NDP tallied 34 and 35 per cent support, respectively.

The fact Kenney hasn’t taken a position on hot-button topics such as LGBTQ rights appears to have hurt his popularity, while the Wildroses larger levels of support before unity could be further supporting Jean’s position.

The survey was conducted between August 14 and 20 by an online research panel with the Voice of Alberta and Angus Reid Forum and was weighted to reflect gender, age, and region of Alberta’s population, according to Statistics Canada.

It’s a representative but non-random sample so the margin of error is not applicable, however. a sample this size would have a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points and a 95 percent confidence interval.



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